According to the team, nearly all seasonal forecasts for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season have been well above normal. Current and long-term conditions across the Atlantic continue to favor a 2020 season that is well above average. 

The team at Colorado State continues to point to many key factors that favor above-average activity across the Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures across much of the hurricane-breeding grounds in the Atlantic are well-above average and have been for several months. Storms feed off warm ocean waters and can grow stronger under those conditions. Warm ocean temperatures are expected to remain in place moving into the peak months of hurricane season -- August to October.

"Another reason for active CSU hurricane season forecast is odds of El Niño this summer/fall are extremely low," according to Colorado State researcher Phil Klotzbach. When El Niño is present, it reduces Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased vertical wind shear -- changes in wind speed and direction with height that prevent hurricanes from building.

In addition, the researchers say that changes in convective precipitation over the Sahel region has been shown to impact zonal winds in the upper-troposphere, which in turn modulate vertical wind shear over the Main Development Region and influence the conditions of cyclogenesis over the tropical Atlantic. Years with higher Sahel rainfall tend to be associated with more active hurricane seasons, the researchers said .

Last, dust outbreaks from West Africa impact tropical cyclone activity by reducing Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures ahead of the hurricane season. Episodes of dust outbreak are also associated with extremely dry air coming from the Sahara, another factor detrimental to cyclone formation.